2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso:

The Baltimore Orioles have had one of the best farm systems in baseball over the past several years. Thanks to five consecutive losing seasons from 2017-2021, surpassing 100 losses in three of them. But let’s also remember just how difficult it is to scout and develop major-league talent. The Orioles front office should be thanked just as much as their losing. The list of talent that runs through their organization is LONG. Starting with their 1^st overall pick in 2019 (the closest to a sure-thing in terms of draft prospects), Adley Rutschman. Followed by possibly a better pick that same year, their 2^nd round pick, and soon-to-be AL Rookie of the Year, Gunnar Henderson. Then there’s Grayson Rodriguez, who pitched lights-out after his recall to the majors this season and will fight for the #1 spot in the Orioles rotation next season. For the sake of this article, I’ll stop with the name drops (for now). This Pick 2 will highlight the next two stars in the Orioles system. One should be fairly obvious. The other may surprise you. Especially when you see his stat line. Let’s get to it.

Start with the AVG column, then just keep reading. Wow. Both prospects had tremendous seasons at the plate, especially across these categories. Among the top-150 ranked prospects going into the season, they finished 4^th and 14^th in OPS. Prospect 1 finished 9^th in AVG, while Prospect 2 finished 4^th in SLG and 5^th in Hard-Hit %. Both finished top-25 in BB % (we won’t ignore the +20% K-rates, though). Who are they? Let’s start with the obvious:

Prospect 1: Jackson Holliday, SS/2B

If you’re a baseball fan, you know the name. Jackson is the 1st overall pick from the 2022 MLB draft and son of former outfielder Matt Holliday.

The expectations were high right off the bat. Former Oklahoma High School Player of the Year to 1st Overall Pick in the draft. MLB.com gave him a 70-hit tool, the highest given to any player that year. As a 185-lb, lefty-hitting shortstop, you’d think power would be a problem? Not for Holliday. Jackson had 52 extra-base hits across 125 games last year. The jump from High-A to Double-A is challenging for almost every prospect. Check out Holliday’s stat-line changes after his call-up:

There’s not much else I need to share here. Jackson jumped four levels in his first “full” pro year. It’s almost a certainty that he will make his major-league debut next season at a young 20-years old. And many are projecting Jackson to be the future star of the Orioles, a team inclusive of the aforementioned Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson.

As you can probably guess, Holliday’s 1^st Bowman was the chase card in the 2022 Bowman Draft set. If you want to grab one, I hope you’re ready to spend. His last two sales (during the off-season, when prices are generally lower):

Blue Refractor Autograph /150 (PSA 10): $4,898

Gold Refractor Autograph /50 (PSA 10): $12,000 (PWCC Auction, so take that with a grain of salt).

Jackson will be elite, but spend carefully. Top prospects generally have a hard time meeting their early values once they hit the majors. Not because they don’t don’t pan out, but because prospectors value potential over output.

Prospect 2: Coby Mayo, 3B

Coby Mayo went into the 2023 season outside MLB’s top-100 list and 7^th on the Orioles list. He then posted the season in the table above. Now he’s 27^th on the top-100 and 4^th on the Orioles list (that should show just how crazy this Orioles system is). With Kjerstad and Cowser graduating this year, he’ll move up to #2, only behind the other name listed in this profile.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wFpl9LdWok

Coby is a big 6-foot-5, power hitting 3^rd baseman. The Orioles drafted him in the 4^th round of the 2020 draft specifically for that power. But what they didn’t know, was that Mayo would improve his contact and plate vision very early. Through three seasons, has a minor league career .279/.384/.907 stat line with 300 hits in 297 games. Yes, his strikeout rate is high (at 28%), but he gets on base. And the power is just flat-out insane. He has posted a 162-game average of 31 HR and 114 RBI with a career OPS over .900.

The best part, card collectors just don’t realize how good he is (yet). Coby’s 1^st Bowman Auto comes in the 2020 Bowman Baseball set. Which, we highlighted in Kevin Alcantara’s write-up, is the cheapest set you’ll find on the market. It’s not very deep, but how many bowman sets are? If you’re looking for a cheap(er) Bowman rip, go grab a box.

If you want to grab his auto directly, his last base did $64. There are fairly-priced color autos all over eBay. My only concern, as I’ve mentioned several times already, the Orioles are DEEP. Coby needs to compete to be the face of this team. Still, the value is great.

I’d say the future is bright in Baltimore…but the future is already here. Jackson and Coby have the opportunity to jump right into a juggernaut full of young talent.