2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: Dec 30, 2023

We have a couple of different running segments in the early stages of 2 The Bigs, which include:

Prospect Profiles: We highlight a specific prospect and grade them

Pick 2: We compare two similar prospects, whether in stats, age, position or by any other means, and grade them

Checklist Reports: We compare or highlight prospects from a specific Bowman release, and of course, grade them

But what type of baseball prospectors would we be if we didn’t have position rankings. So, let’s start now. Position Reports will highlight a set of prospects at a given position (top-ranked, sleepers, first-year, etc).

With that, welcome to our first Position Report. In this one, I want to highlight a position that we have steered clear from so far (not purposefully). That would be First Base. Not the flashiest position to major league organizations, given the lower athletic ability needed to tend to the position in the field, but one associated with monster power. Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Vlad Guerrero, the list goes on. Here I want to cover three 1^st-base prospects at or under the age of 21 that showed growth in 2023, and who are worth keeping an eye on going into the spring.

Ryan Clifford, New York Mets (High-A)

The Scherzer/Verlander experiment in Queens was nothing but a disappointment. After a few tough spring months for the Mets, the front office made a decision to give up on 2023 and focus on the future. Lindor and Alonso (given they resign the latter) are still in their prime. Senga and Alvarez showed they can be key pieces to a winning club. But the Braves have a massive talent lead in the NL East. All to say, the Mets made the right choice. Scherzer was sent-off to Texas for star prospect Luisangel Acuna, and Verlander was sent back to Houston for a big haul, which included 1^st-baseman, Ryan Clifford.

Clifford was an 11^th-round pick by the Astros in 2022. He was projected to go 2^nd or 3^rd round but had committed to Vanderbilt leading up to the draft. The Astros ended up paying him a signing bonus equivalent of a 2^nd-round pick to urge him to forego college, which he ended up doing. Clifford had a solid first-full season in 2023. In 115 games, he slashed .260/.478/.861 with 24 HR and 81 RBI. Remember, Ryan just turned 20 in July.

Clifford’s also made a heck of a first impression with the Mets. In hist first at-bat for the club, he sent a laser over the right field wall (below). But the trade may have had a mental impact on Clifford. After a stellar start to the season in the Astros org, he hit just .188 with the Brooklyn Cyclones in his last 25 games. 2023 will be an important season, as he’s likely to start in High-A and make his way up to Double-A at the young age of 20 or 21.

Can you guess the major flaw so far for this young, power-hitting, lefty first baseman? If you guessed strike-outs, you guessed right. Clifford had a 27% K-rate in 2023, tallying 140 in just those 115 games. On the bright side, you can say he showed progression given he had a 40% K-rate in his 25 games in 2022. Like I said, Clifford is young. He was very impressive in high-A with the Astros, and the polar opposite at the same level for the Mets. He has plenty of time before he’s sees Citi Field, let’s see if he can get that strike-out rate down next year.

His 1^st autograph comes in 2023 Bowman, one which is only going for $30 (base). Not a bad price, but a player: at a less-than-prime position, who strikes out a ton, and is in a different uniform in his card than the team he was traded to, doesn’t attract me to his cards, even at that value.

Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay Rays (Single-A)

Another teenage draftee, Xavier Isaac was taken out of high school in North Carolina. At a stout 6-foot-3 & 240 pounds, Isaac is the definition of a lefty-power hitting first baseman, but with a (positive) twist. The kid can also hit and get on base. So much so, that the Rays jumped on him in the 1^st-round of the 2022 draft, even with the fact he was dealing with a lengthy foot injury. We’ll ignore his short 5-game stint in rookie ball in 2022, led by said injury, and jump straight to 2023.

Isaac hit .285, but more impressive, he saw a +110-point OBP at .395. Isaac, and article-mate Ryan Clifford, are the two youngest first basemen across all minor league levels in 2023 to hold an OBP +100-points above their batting average. He also showed-off his power, hitting 19 HR and 72 RBI across 102 games. He also added 12 stolen-bases, which may be the most impressive, given his size.

Yes, the kid strikes out a lot as well. But again, who doesn’t as a teenage first-year pro. You won’t see what I love most about this kid’s game on his Baseball Reference or MLB.com profile. You will however, see it below:

I’m a sucker for a straight, one-handed, lefty swing. The ball just pops off his bat. He also looks very comfortable and relaxed at the plate. The Rays know a thing or two about finding value in the minor leagues. They wouldn’t grab a power-hitting lefty in the 1^st-round if that’s all he was destined to be.

Isaac’s first-autograph comes from Bowman 2023, and it’s currently going for $65/$190 (base raw/PSA 10). He’s expensive, given it’s a bit of a newer release, but I really like this kid. I’ll look to add if his price comes down a tad this winter. Look for Isaac to see Double-A this year, and let’s see that strike-out rate drop below the 20% mark.

Blaze Jordan, Boston Red Sox (Double-A)

Prospectors and card collectors have known about Blaze Jordan for some time now. It’s hard to believe that he is still only 21-years-old. Blaze was drafted in the 3^rd-round of the 2020 draft at the age of 18. Jordan had a high-school run close to that of Bryce Harper. Blaze was crushing the ball at showcases and derbies, hitting two-500-foot home runs in one showing:

But what’s impressed about Blaze is that he rarely seems to regress at any level during his early-professional career:

2021: Rookie/A

.324/.368/.590 6 HR 26 RBI in 28 Games

2022: A/A+

.289/.363/.445 12 HR 68 RBI in 120 Games

2023: A+/AA

.296/.350/.481 18 HR 86 RBI in 122 Games

Now, I used the word ‘rarely’ above because he did hit .254 across 49 Double-A games (compared to .324 in High-A), but he still saw a drop in K-rate at the higher level. I’ve always had a thing for Blaze (in terms of baseball interest, not, you know…). At 21-years-old he only struck out 14% of the time across those same two-levels. At 20 and 21 he was named an MiLB.com organization All-Star for the Red Sox. A full season in Double-A/Triple-A will be extremely important for Jordan. One where if he impresses, could lead to him fighting for an opening day major league roster spot in 2025 at the young-age of 22.

There’s only one problem. The Red Sox are a tad committed to both Blaze’s primary (1B) and secondary position (3B) at the major-league level. Triston Casas splashed onto the scene last year and is primed for a major-2024 at 1^st-base. Meanwhile, Rafael Devers needs no additional context at third. However, if you argued that Devers was the worst fielding 3B in the MLB, you’d probably win that fight. Unless the Sox look to add Jordan to a package to grab a big-arm, he may force the Red Sox to think about that latter option for Devers.

Either way I’m high on Jordan. As a Yankees fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing him swap teams. He comes from the 2021 Bowman set that I still believe has a ton of value. Not as much because of the depth (Jordan, Alcantara and Mayo highlight the set), but because of the price. A 3-autograph box goes for only $230 right now. If you like ripping, it’s a fun, moderately-cheap Bowman rip. If you like value, grab Jordan’s 1st-autograph for only $50-$60.