2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: Jan 24, 2024

“Ripping sealed wax” a.k.a. “opening boxes” rarely never works out financially. It is, without a doubt the most fun part of the baseball card and prospecting hobby, and the reason most of us got into it.

But opening up baseball card boxes is a terrible investment, nonetheless. Most boxes cost upwards of $200, $500 even $1,000, and 99.9% of the cards you pull will likely only go for a few dollars.

Topps has done a fantastic job of increasing print runs (meaning printing more cards in the market leading to lower value), but will slip in a few monster “chase cards” to keep interest and sales up (think Tom Brady’s Montreal Expos card in 2023 Bowman Draft or the Ohtani/Ruth dual-autograph from Topps Definitive). You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than pulling these cards that are worth five figures.

So, what’s the best way to minimize the financial loss while still having fun? Find sets that are not as high in-demand. This means less expensive, but with more opportunities for value. This also means you likely won’t have a chance at that $500,000 card that you wouldn’t hit in five lifetimes anyways, but you could hit that $200 or $300 card to make your money back. With Bowman, you need to look at the depth of the Bowman 1^st autographs in the set.

2022 Bowman is highlighted by Elly De La Cruz. 2022 Draft is highlighted by Jackson Holliday. 2023 Draft is highlighted by Wyatt Langford and Tom Brady (LOL). This is where 2023 Bowman comes in. At the cheapest price, you can grab a set, which, I think has the deepest checklist of them all. The best part about the Bowman Baseball sets, there are a one-autograph hobby box for cheaper ($230 for 2023). Now that seems like a much more reasonable fun night rip.

But don’t let that cheap price fool you. Below I’m going to cover seven prospects (plus one sleeper!) who, if you can pull, will make you money in the long run. Let’s begin:

Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

Caminero entered 2023 as a 20-year-old, borderline top-100 prospect. Now, after slashing .324/.384/.591 with a .950 OPS across Single-A and Double-A, he enters 2024 as a top-5 prospect on every ranking list. Caminero got the call for the Tampa Bay Rays in late September where he went 8/34 with 1 home run and 7 runs batted in in just seven games. We don’t need to go too deep into this one, if you pull a Caminero, hold it. His market is a BUY and I have him ranked just below Chourio and Holliday. Look for Junior to be a centerpiece in the Rays lineup for years to come (unless they trade him before his contract is up for a slew of new prospects, which will likely happen given the team involved).

Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay Rays

Check out our coverage on Isaac in our 21-Year-Old 1^st Base Position Report

To summarize, “At a stout 6-foot-3 & 240 pounds, Isaac is the definition of a lefty-power hitting first baseman, but with a (positive) twist. The kid can also hit and get on base. Isaac hit .285, but more impressive, he saw a +110-point OBP at .395. Isaac, and article-mate Ryan Clifford, are the two youngest first basemen across all minor league levels in 2023 to hold an OBP +100-points above their batting average. He also showed-off his power, hitting 19 homeruns and 72 runs batted in across 102 games.”

Since that article was written a few weeks back, we bumped him up three points on our potential score (75 to 78). He’s definitely a BUY right now, given that he’s going for nearly half of his soon-to-be teammate mentioned above.

Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox

As second round draft pick in 2022, Anthony had a short, yet interesting debut year. Here’s his split for 20 games at two levels:

Rookie Ball (10 games): .429/.475/.486

Single-A (10 games): .189/.279/.243

If there were any doubters that Anthony wouldn’t progress as he moved up the organization, he surely proved them wrong in 2023.

Single-A (42 games): .228/.376/.316 1 HR 18 RBI

High-A (54 games): .294/.412/.569 12 HR 38 RBI

Double-A (ten games): .343/.477/.543 1 HR 8 RBI (1.020 OPS, had to throw that in there)

He also carried a top-50 hard hit rate across all minor leaguers (37 percent). His strike-out rate is high (24 percent), but so is his walk-rate (17.5 percent), leading to a massive plus-.130 point jump from his average to on-base percentage. With a smooth, straight, two-handed swing from the left-side, I see a bit of a Bryan Reynolds type swing in him. 2024 will bring a full season in Double-A for the kid. I’d HOLD any Anthony to see how he fares at that level for a longer stretch.

Lazaro Montes, Seattle Mariners

Montes is the highest-risk on this list for me. Yes, most will get mad that I said that when they see the name coming up next. But Lazaro is the definition of a power-bat. A 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefty corner outfielder who could still shift over to first base given his mediocre defense. But with that risk does come reward. A Mariners beat writer even compared him to a young Yordan Alvarez. I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t see it from his appearance at the plate. And when I saw Montes’ 25 percent strike-out rate, I said to myself “I guarantee Yordan never had a 20-plus percent rate in his minor league career”. Welp, he did. So, I’ll give Montes the benefit of the doubt.

Will he become Yordan Alvarez? Alvarez, who, in my opinion, is the single-most dangerous hitter on the planet right now. I don’t think so.

But a .321/.429/.565 slash line in 33 games as a sub-20-year-old in A-ball is very intriguing. I’ll give him a HOLD right now to see how he fares in Double-A at some point this year.  

Druw Jones, Arizona Diamondbacks

Ahh, Mr. Druw Jones. The ideal story for the impatience of the baseball card collector. He is the son of one of the great center fielders of our generation Andruw Jones, one of my brother’s favorite players growing up in the 1990’s. For that reason, Jones was at Jackson Holliday’s level of hype when each were taken 1-2 in the 2022 MLB Draft.

Their early careers have gone in completely opposite directions since. Holliday, with two-full healthy seasons has done nothing but hit and jumped his way to the top of prospect lists (by top I mean the very top, No. 1).

Jones caught the injury bug with a lengthy quad strain followed by another lengthy right hamstring injury. This kept him from debuting in 2022 and left him out until mid-August of 2023. From there, Jones struggled in Rookie and A-ball, hitting .238 across 41 games with a sub-.350 slugging percentage and 25 percent K-rate. But I will give him the benefit of the doubt. He’ll be entering 2024 as a 20-year-old who is preparing for his first full-healthy season. Jones is a 6-foot-4 outfielder with a Gatorade Player of the Year and state title under his belt, and was considered the “toolsiest” (didn’t know that was a real word) prospect in the 2022 class by MLB.com. I think Jones has a huge year in 2024. I’m still HOLDING now as his prices in market are an indication that he already had this bounce-back.

Spencer Jones, New York Yankees

We highlighted Jones in a Prospect Profile earlier last year. Go check it out. Here’s an excerpt from that article:

“He hit .267 at the plate with 16 homers and 66 runs batted in in 2023 and look for him to be in Triple-A early next season when his numbers continue to improve. And there definitely are areas of improvement before he moves his way up to the top of the organization. Jones had a 29 percent K-rate and a 9 percent walk-rate. The K-rate is the tenth highest amongst top 150 prospects and the Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio is above average by 18 percent amongst those same prospects. His OPS was also low (.786), specifically at 83th amongst top 100 prospects and .082 points below the average.”

I’ll keep a HOLD on Spencer Jones. The Yankees have a full outfield with the acquisition of Juan Soto and emergence of Jasson Dominguez. Jones needs to get the strike-out rate under control or he could end up as a mid-season trade piece for the acquisition of another arm for the Yankees.

Josue De Paula, Los Angeles Dodgers

We also highlighted De Paula in a Prospect Profile earlier last year. Go check it out. Here’s an excerpt from that article.

“In 2023, he played in Single-A, where he continued to impress at the plate (.284/.396.768). The power dropped a tad, but he still managed to drive in 40 RBI and steal 16 bags across 74 games. Remember, he’s also still 18-years-old and weighs only 185-pounds. By the time he makes his major league debut, I expect the Dodgers would have already put him on a full bulking program. He also kept his strikeout-rate below 20 percent, along with a 13 percent walk-rate, which is very rare to see in the minors, especially for players of Josue’s age.”

I’m keeping a BUY rating on De Paula, and he’s my sleeper to make a Caminero-type jump on prospect lists in 2024.

Sleeper: Dyan Jorge, Colorado Rockies

The upside on Jorge is huge. Another 20-year-old prospect with two full seasons under his belt. Jorge is a lengthy shortstop coming in at 6-foot-3 and a light 170 pounds. In two seasons at Rookie and Single-A ball he’s slashed .312/.386/.434 with 149 hits and 32 stolen bases in only 123 games. What I like even more is his 15-percent K-rate in each of his first two seasons. As he continues to feel more comfortable at the plate, I can see that rate inching closer to 10-percent. More importantly, if Jorge can bulk up a bit this winter, he can get those power numbers up and have a big year in Double-A. With Tovar and Amador already filling shortstop for the Rockies, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move Jorge (hopefully to a better market).