2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: Feb 7, 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=He_RJT4F4Og

No need for a lengthy intro. Let’s cover our Top-4 catching prospects and 1-sleeper pick who can creep up the prospect rankings in 2024:

1. Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles

Sub-20-years-old. Sub-20% K-rate. +.300/+.400/+.550 slash line. 20 HR, 86 RBI and a 31% hard-hit-rate in 114 games. Oh, and after a late-season promotion to Double-A, he went 7/15 with a double, a triple and only one strikeout. Those metrics already gave me enough to comfortably place Basallo first on this list.

Then I watched his tape.

Basallo has a quick lefty-swing. Something he did not come into the minors with. When signed by the Orioles in 2021, Basallo had a long, messy swing with a big leg-kick. Baltimore may have the best scouting and development team in the majors, so all of the above is now gone. His quicker swing allows him to hit a slew of bad pitches, and hit them far. He hit a few balls out of the park that maybe only Vlad Guerrero Sr. could get to. He’s a bit pull-heavy (45%), but when he does hit the ball to left-field, he hits it hard. You can see the power in this kid’s swing and at 180 pounds, it’s scary to think that his strength can develop even more.  Clearly the catcher position for the Orioles is filled for the next decade. For Basallo, he’ll either be a 1^st Baseman in Baltimore, or a catcher somewhere else. Either way, this kid has 30 HR 100 RBI written all over his major league career.

Bastello’s 1^st Bowman comes from the 2023 Bowman Chrome set. One “headlined by another catcher that I will mention below. But he’s clearly the chase. It comes at a price ($80 avg. sale price for a base) but he’s a BUY for me, Bastello should shoot up to the top-10 at some point this season.

2. Harry Ford, Seattle Mariners

Harry was the 12^th overall pick in 2021. Taken straight out of high-school, there was no doubt that Ford came with two plus tools: Hit and Run (no pun intended). Fast-forward to 241 games later, he’s accumulated 237 hits and 50 stolen bases. A minor-league career .267 average is nothing to gloat about, but a .416 OBP is. Ford drew the 3^rd most walks in the minors last year, leading to a whopping 18.3 walk-rate, which was the 8^th highest amongst minor-league catchers (min 150 PA).  With three pro-seasons under his belt and still only 20-years-old, Ford has plenty of time to continue to develop. This year he’ll likely get a full season in Double-A to do so. Ford has the highest-floor amongst every name on this list. The question will be if he can regenerate his power, as his .430 slugging percentage in 2023 was outside top-50 amongst minor-league catchers.

Ford’s 1^st Bowman autograph comes from the 2021 Draft set. For some reason, Topps decided to print a lot less base autographs of Ford compared to others, essentially making it a short print. For that reason, it comes at a cost. Average raw-base autographs are currently going for $125. For that reason, I’d give him a HOLD. Let’s see how he fares in Double-A this year.

3. Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres

Ethan Salas: The youngest active prospect to reach Double-A just because of the hype around his superior upside? Or, the youngest active prospect to reach Double-A because he proved himself against pro-pitching? I’m not a hater, so I’d like to think it’s a combination of both. But I still am surprised seeing Salas placed on prospect rankings above Bastello and Ford. In 48 games in A-ball, Salas hit .267 with 9 HR and 35 RBI. In 18 combined games in A+/AA, Salas hit .190 with 0 HR and 6 RBI. Small sample size, yes. Still only 17-years-old, yes. But I do find it funny that Salas brings a similar hype around him that Jasson Dominguez brought only a few years before him. Yet, Salas doesn’t seem to get the quick-take down mentality that Jasson received when he had a sub-par first professional year. That’s the hate that comes with being a part of the Yankees, I guess.

Anyways, the Padres spent their entire 2023 international signing budget on Salas, and it’s clear that he’s their catcher of the future. It’s not whether he’ll reach the majors or not; it’s whether he’ll reach the majors before he turns 19-years-old. Scouted as a complete five-tool catcher, you may not see them on display in the stat line, but you sure can from the highlight tape. When Salas turns on a ball, it takes off. But he’s extremely pull-heavy, only hitting the ball to the opposite field 15% of the time and he struck out a ton (26%).

I’m a SELL on Salas in the card market right now. You’ll be paying top dollar for a lot of risk but if you pull one, take that profit. Prospecting is all about potential, right? So, his potential may never be higher than it is right now as the “youngest prospect in Double-A”.

4. Jeferson Quero, Milwaukee Brewers

I’ll start with why I put him 3^rd over the next name. First, his defensive tool has already been put on display (2023 Minor League Gold Glove winner). Second, we’ve already seen him develop and improve. Seen here:

Quero chased a lot of breaking balls when he entered the minors. He’s now laying off those pitches. However, I think he still has a slightly lower hit tool than Ford, given the latter’s ability to have consistently tough at-bats. Quero should definitely see the major leagues this year, maybe even before fellow top prospect and teammate, Jackson Chourio. However, the catcher position is filled for the Brewers in William Contreras. Quero’s elite defense tool will keep him at catcher, but possibly as a backup for the short-term. A similar .260 20 HR 75 RBI line to Contreras is in Quero’s future, when he secures the full-time job. Jeferson’s 1^st bowman autograph comes in 2021 Bowman Chrome. He’s extremely cheap (around $8-$10). However, I’m leaning SELL on him, given the above-average yet not out-of-this-world upside at the plate.

Sleeper: Moises Ballesteros, Chicago Cubs

Ballesteros is my sleeper given he’s still in his teenage years and already hit Double-A. Even though he is young, he still held the lowest K-rate from anybody on this list (16.4%). He also slashed an impressive .284/.374/.448 in his longest season as a pro (117 games). Ballesteros will get a full season at Double-A. Keep an eye on his progress, with a wide-open catcher slot at the majors, don’t be surprised if we see him in the majors at just 20-years-old in 2025. If the Cubs can get him in the weight room, this kid can be an absolute monster in the power and strength department.

Moises comes in the 2023 Bowman set where he’s extremely undervalued. His base autographs are going for only $15, and I like the upside here. I’ll give a BUY on his market, as anybody who can see the majors at 20 years old could be a great opportunity.