2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: Mar 14, 2024

28-year-old Dylan Cease has had an up-and-down career so far. His 3.93 lifetime ERA isn’t half bad, but he’s only had a sub-4 ERA in 2 out of 5 seasons. What makes him attractive is his stuff (792 K’s across 658 IP) and his contract (team control until 2026). Because of this, the White Sox aimed for the moon this winter, asking for an arm and a leg (literally and figuratively speaking) for the young RHP. As spring training arrived with no deal, it seemed like the asking price would significantly drop. It did, but not by much. Yesterday the trade was announced that would send Cease to the Padres for (recently acquired) RHP Drew Thorpe, RHP Jairo Iriarte, RHP Steven Wilson and OF Samuel Zavala.

At 2 The Bigs, we love prospects. At 2 The Bigs, we especially love high-upside hitting prospects. Outlets like CBS sports and others are giving A-grades to the Padres. But I’m not so sure that this is the steal they are making it out to be. So let’s cover the highest upside player in the deal.

Samuel Zavala was signed by the Padres in 2021 for $1.2M. He hit right out the gate, slashing .297/.400/.487 with only a 15% K-Rate in 200+ at-bats in DSL. As he reached A-levels, the swing-and-miss rate rose. Last year he hit .243 with a 27% K-rate in 515 plate appearances in A-A+. But there are plenty of bright spots in the statistics. His hard-hit rate was 32.5%, which was top-20% across all Minor League Outfielders with over 250 plate appearances. Even better, his walk-rate was 18.3%, which was 3^rd across that same player set. This led to a whopping 150-point increase in OBP over AVG (.391). A 19-year-old with that discipline is hard to come by.

A tall left-handed bat with a lengthy, but powerful swing, there’s no doubt that Zavala can be a force when he puts the ball in play. He even added more muscle to his 6’1’’, 175-pound frame this winter.

And he’s got the aura that comes with being a star in the majors. The big lefty-leg-kick, the blonde tips, the flashy sunglasses & gold chains, oh and he wears #2 (I personally find the single-digit wearing stars to be more appealing). And in terms of performance, he’ll hit the monster home run, yes, but he’ll also lay down the bunt and then steal 2^nd and 3^rd with ease.

The Padres have an extremely deep farm system, so the deal for Cease looked like a bargain in most eyes. But I think the upside is pretty significant here for Zavala. A 19-year-old who won’t expand the zone, can hit for power, and can steal a base? Sign me up. And let’s face it, the White Sox aren’t going to truly compete anytime soon with that rotation. This gives Zavala the opportunity to shoot up the organization with ease. Watch out, I have a feeling we’ll be hearing more from him this year. With the added muscle and (hopefully) the work he’s put in this offseason to tighten up his swing, I see a drop in that K-rate which means only good things to come.

“Put the word out, that we back up”. Had to drop The Wire reference. But I think it holds true for Zavala’s 2022 Bowman Chrome 1^st autograph. While two days ago you could grab a refractor (/499) for $200, I have a feeling the headlines may bring this price up a bit. However, he’s still cheaper than some of the bigger name international prospects of the recent past. I’ll put a BUY on him because I think he surprises many this year and touches Double-A before his 20^th birthday in July. The high potential score is mainly due to that beautiful plate discipline. He’ll shorten that swing and cut on the misses.