2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: January 27th, 2025

You want high-upside? How about high-risk? If so, you’ve come to the right article. In baseball, international signings in baseball are come with a lot of excitement, and criticism. Early teenagers (14-18 years old) are paid millions of dollars, most of which came from very little. The story that sums it up is of star Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies, who took possibly the worst contract of all time from a players’ point of view (7-year $35 Million deal). He said the reason he took the deal was because he “loves the game and wants his family to be safe). There is a ton of overpay in baseball, and a lot of underpay with international signings. That’s likely because for every Ozzie Albies, there’s a Robert Puason, the “top” international prospect in the 2020s who signed for $4 million from the Athletics at the age of 17. Never heard of him? That’s because he’s hitting .204 across 1k+ plate appearances and stuck in A-ball at the age of 21.

Hundred of international signings will never reach the majors, but some become the biggest players in the sport. Soto, Guerrero Jr., Lindor, Acuna, the list goes on. I’m going to give you my top-10 international (teenage) prospects. Some will become Puason. Any one of them could become a star. Let’s do it.

10. Rayner Arias (SFG) (Upside Score: 78) [40th Overall]

2024 was a big “show me” year for Rayner, after he had a ridiculous (and short) 2023 season at DSL. Then he got hurt. I’ll carry over my write-up from my initial cover on him last winter. Now 2025 brings a bit more pressure for Rayner:

From Pick 2: High-Ranked, Teenage International OF

He’s got a home run swing, but he’s controlled at the plate. He only struck out 11 times in 76 PA (14.5%). We don’t want to jump the gun; we need to see him up against A/AA pitching. We’ll see that right when the 2024 season is underway. I LOVE his upside, one that screams 40/100. But [2025] will be a huge deciding factor to see if he is going to take the Ronald Acuna route, or the Jurickson Profar one (no disrespect to Profar, who has built a solid career).

9. Eduardo Tait (PHI) (Upside Score: 75) [37th Overall]

Great slash in DSL (.321/.377/.500) with 6 HR and 49 RBI in 51 games. He struggled a bit after his promotion to A, and needs to work on his discpline, but he’s hitting line-drives frequently (20%+ at every level) and gets a ton of loft. He swings A LOT, but he’s down -20% on swing rates YoY. He’s taking a lot more strikes too, which is fine. A big year for him to develop into a tougher at-bat.

8. Felnin Celesten (SEA) (Upside Score: 76) [36th Overall]

Celesten hits WAY too many ground balls. But he gets on base when he puts the ball in play, likely due to his speed. Only 32 games at rookie ball into his career, but the switch-hitter will need to add weight (sitting at 175 lbs) and power to his bat.

7. Robert Calaz (COL) (Upside Score: 78) [33rd Overall]

Calaz is a BIG bat in a big bat state. The park may be hitter friendly, but the organization is not. Let’s see if Colorado can develop a hitter for once. He has lower contact-rates and higher-K rates amongst this group, but surprisingly brought the highest OPS amongst the crowd as well (1.090 OPS in 220 AB last year).

6. Brailer Guerrero (TAM) (Upside Score: 81) [25th Overall]

An 18-year-old at the rookie level for 2nd year after a torn labrum in ’23. He delivered a monster .909 OPS, along with an 18% walk rate. He dropped is swing rate 20% year-over-year, and is more patient than most on this list. He’ll start a month or two late in 2025 from another injury but it will be a big year for him to show his talent in A-ball. Guerrero has the tools to make a top 50 overall prospect jump, but that depends on his health and growth this year.

5. Sebastian Walcott (TEX) (Upside Score: 80) [24th Overall]

Walcott already debuted Double AA, which is amazing for a kid at his age. He’s got amazing power potential for a teen, but also a wildly high and increasing K-rate. He’s a heavy pull hitter, pulling 50-60% at each level. He’s young so I’m not concerned, I’m just always lower on players with huge power upside and increasing contact issues. Ranking him this low now will either make me look like a genius or shut me down in a few years. I’ll double-down and say it’s going to be the former.

4. Welbyn Francisca (CLE) (Upside Score: 79) [23rd Overall]

SURPRISE! “hOw CaN yOu RaNk HiM aBoVe WaLcOtT?!”. Well it’s simple. The hit tool. In 291 AB, Francisca had an 82% contact rate, which was highest on this list. He added a slash of .326/.411. He was also consistent across 2 Rookie leagues and A Ball in the last two years (140 wRC+). Walcott had a 123 wRC+ in High-A. The concerns are fair, but can be developed more easily than contact/hit concerns. His hard-hit rate is low and he hits A LOT of ground balls (55% last year). Getting lift and power on his swing will be a big focus in 2025. But I love the “he doesn’t have a loud tool” scouting. I’ll take a kid who can do it all and develop over the ones that have a big power tool and can’t put the rest together.

3.Leodalis De Vries (SDP) (Upside Score: 82) [16th Overall]

De Vries skipped over DSL and went straight to A-Ball. He was a full year younger than anyone in the California League. Obviously he struggled at the start, but his turnaround was what excites. In his last 44 games he hit .267/.393/.534 with 11 HR. He isn’t pull heavy either, and should be an early debut in each league he touches. Give me De Vries > Walcott all day.

2. Josue De Paula (LAD) (2TB Score: 86) [ Overall]

De Paula was my guess to jump to a top-5 prospect by 2025. This likely happens without his injury mid-season. Now I’ll say it again, he’ll be a top-5 prospect by years’ end. Before the injury, he carried an absurd BB-K ratio for his age (1.31). He’s a big lefty-bat at 6 foot 3. But he’s also extremely patient (18% walk rate across A/A+ last year). Expect a MAJOR year from him in 2025.

1. Jaison Chourio (CLE) (Upside Score: 85) [7th Overall]

My guess for 2025 MiLB Prospect of the Year. A 1.25 BB-K was 2nd on this list only behind the aforementioned De Paula. But Chourio saw hundreds more ABs in a full healthy season. He’s a 19-years-old in A-ball and should see most of this season at AA. He also added 43 stolen bases to his statline. I’m waiting for the power to come, but this guy has all the tools to be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter at the pro-level by 21. Main goal for 2025: more lift, more aggressiveness.