2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: March 5th, 2025

I don’t want to jump the gun, but 2025 is a make-or-break year for these prospects. This is not to say that “break” means that they’ll never reach their potential. But I do believe that their ranks within the league and their respective organizations will take a big hit if they struggle. I’ll cover my top five, and insert two honorable mentions since I’m in a good mood. Let’s do it.

Player [Upside Score] (Likeliness)

Honorable Mention 1: Ethan Salas, Padres [75] (LOW)

Yes, I know it’s early for Salas. But he’s still consistently being given a top-40 rank across baseball with a career .222 AVG across 700+ PA. He’s been (severely) under-average in wRC+ (Runs per PA) at A+ and AA across two seasons. He’s got a few years to really develop, but his ranking across baseball could take a major hit with another year of struggling to put the hit tool together.

Honorable Mention 2: Termarr Johnson, Pirates [71] (LOW)

This is the opposite of Salas, in that this is truly the make-or-break year for Termarr. He’s an honorable mention and not officially ranked here, only because I believe his time as already passed. High K-rates, declining BB-rates, a sub-.245 AVG across 3 levels in 2.5 seasons, and a kid who swings, and swings and misses more each year.

5. Xavier Isaac, Rays [84] (MED)

One of my favorite prospects going into 2024. Unfortunately, his contact regressed when I thought the opposite would happen. His K-rate jumped 12pp (to 33%) and up to 40% in 31 AA games. The good news? He’s still 21 and will play a full season in AA. His discipline is still solid and has maintained a high-.300s OBP and BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). It means when he doesn’t strike-out, he’s on base or touching home plate. The .265 18 HR 78 RBI 15 SB statline in 2024 is nothing to shrug-off. He’s only on this list because Rays 1B Tre’ Morgan is looking like the more developed and professional hitter in the organization. However, give me Isaac’s star upside with the Rays developmental team.

4. Spencer Jones, Yankees [77] (LOW)

Seems like we’re living in a simulation when it comes to Spencer. This spring feels like a repeat of last. Jones has impressed both years with monster home runs against solid spring pitching…and social media eats it up.

However, it’s what’s in between that scares me. This guy is a prospectors worst nightmare. In 122 games at AA he had a 37% K-rate against a 10% BB-rate. He also saw a 12pp drop in contact rates year over year. At least as a raw-power hitter you’d think those metrics would impress. Well, he had a .452 SLG, which across Rotowire’s top-400 prospects, ranks outside the Top-50. Not to mention, he’s turning 24-years-old this spring. These types of prospects are ones I generally avoid from the get-go, and I’m not anticipating a monumental shift in his plate approach that will make him an enticing big-league player. As a Yankees fan, I hope he proves me wrong.

3. Robert Hassell III, Nationals [73] (LOW)

Bobby Barrel’s made our 1st Weekly Hit Sheet of the year. He has impressed early on in spring. However, he’s taken a hit across rankings throughout the past several years, since being the 8th overall selection in the 2020 MLB draft. Since, he’s now nearly four years older (turning 24 this year), and has carried a .260/.350/.385 slash through four levels. Slowly falling down the Nationals organizational depth chart, this feels like the make-or-break year for Hassell to show that he can put it all together at the MLB level. The good news? He increased his AVG and contact rates during his stint in AA Harrisburg for the Nat’s last season. The bad news? here’s what dropped: his HR, SLG, Line-Drive rate & HR/FB rates. He’s looking more like a ceiling utility guy.

2. Ronny Mauricio, Mets [79] (MED)

Ronny is not a victim of poor play. He’s one of injury. This is not a rare situation for prospects, in fact, it happens more than you think. But let’s not forget this kid went .292/.346/.506 in 116 games at AAA in 2023. Then in a quick 26 game stint in the majors he he hit .250 with 2 HR.

This guy developed every year at the plate in the minors. The opposite of most other prospects, he increased contact and power metrics as he reached higher levels. There’s no reason Mauricio should not be a top-3 Mets prospect (MLB does not feel this way, but they come with recency bias as well). In terms of positivity of the make-or-break year, Ronny is #1 on this list, slightly ahead of Isaac.

1. Druw Jones, Diamondbacks [74] (LOW)

*A single tear falls from my eye as I write this*

I loved Druw Jones. I loved the 2023 Bowman Set, for many reasons, but mainly because of Druw Jones. This kid has star genes (son of Andruw Jones) and star potential. However, it just hasn’t clicked. Another victim of early-career injuries, Jones missed the entire year he was drafted in (2022) and only played in 41 games the following year. All of which he struggled (.238/.353/.327 with a 26% K-rate in A ball). He took a leap in the contact department in his first full-length season in ’24, and finally jumped above average in wRC+ (125, where 100 is average). His swing rates are down but his contact rates and line drive rates were up. All of which is great to see. The problem is he’s entering a year where he’s out of top prospect ranks and the outfield is solidified at the major league level for several years. Although only 21, Jones can be another top-3 draft choice that fades into the depths of an organization if he doesn’t impress this season.