By Sal Corso: March 25th, 2025:

Our RANKING SHEET isn’t your typical ranking sheet. We don’t just rank a prospect with a number. We also give them an Upside Score and a Likeliness Score to hit that potential. As a refresher:

Upside Score: A unique value based which determines our realistic upside for the prospect. The score determines the prospects potential ceiling based on tools and performance:

Likeliness: Chance to reach upside based-on tools & current performance.

Now that Spring Training is over, you can see which prospects had changes to their scores on our RANKING SHEET. Prospects that shifted show a (+) or (-) next to each score. In this write-up, I’m going to give you the reasons why. Let’s take a look.

MOVING UP

Max Clark

A nice little spring for Max, which showed that he could hit MLB pitching. It’s a big year for him, as he’ll likely spend the entire season in AA and push for a top-5 overall prospect in baseball with a solid performance. I’m increasing the upside and likeliness for Max, I got the much needed little taste of what he could do.

Justin Crawford

Justin displayed all five-tools against big-league competition this spring. He’s just about MLB-ready, I think a month or so in AAA will be enough. The Phillies don’t need a lefty bat, but it will be hard to keep him off the pro roster through the summer. Would be surprising to see, but the Phil’s could move him for an arm before the deadline if they are at the top of a very tough NL East. If the Phil’s keep him down for most of the year, he’ll be a dark horse for the #1 Overall Prospect in 2026 (below). Increasing his upside, as he showed that he could be more than just an every-day outfielder at the big league level.

Alejandro Osuna

Osuna had a monster big spring. Once he gets the shot, he’ll capitalize. The Rangers have a ton of outfield depth in the organization, but he should surpass Evan Carter on said depth chart shortly, if not already. Increased both scores as I think he has a good chance to become an everyday+ bat soon enough. Update: Evan Carter was sent down to AAA to start the year. Give me Osuna over Carter as the first man up if the outfield needs help in the pros.

Robert Hassell III

.370/.408/.543 in nearly 50 plate appearances. There’s no reason for him not to give Jacob Young a run for his money at some point during the Nationals continued rebuild. Increased his likeliness has he earned the chance to be a utility guy at the big league level.

Chandler Simpson

Simpson made all the headlines this spring. He may even be a fan favorite for the small fan base that the Rays have left. Simpson will make his major league debut sooner-rather-than-later. My guess is late April when Christopher Morel is touting a 40% K-rate. Remember, this is a kid that stole 100 bases in a season. He’ll be an impact player if he can get on base a bit more consistently.

Jac Caglianone

Jac may have turned me into a believer this spring. The high-power, low-contact college guys are never that attractive to me (from a baseball prospect point of view, of course). Before this spring, Jac was almost a sure-fire 2026 MLB debut player. Now? He’ll take his 1.700 OPS in 25 spring PA’s back down to AAA, with the hopes that he can debut later this summer to help the Royals for a summer playoff push. It’s no guarantee, but a much stronger possibility after this showing. I upped his upside score as he displayed that potential all-star power bat, but I still think pitchers will figure him out and he’ll need to adjust (re: Spencer Jones on a similar composition who hasn’t adjusted well).

Nick Kurtz

Yes, Jac impressed. But Kurtz is still the most seasoned, best at-bat in this years’ draft class. Kurtz was sent down to minor league camp, but has still made occasional appearances at pro-camp throughout the past two weeks. The .261 AVG and .452 OBP shows you just how high this kid’s floor is. He could hit .230 and he’d still likely get on base more than 90% of MLB hitters. The Athletics will be pretty good this year and may even compete in a weak American League. With that, they’ll need an upgrade from Soderstrom at 1B, and Kurtz will be the answer. The high floor is obvious, the increase in upside is because I think a .450+ OBP, 30 HR, 100 RBI stat-line is doable in the near future if he stays healthy. Here’s how well I think Kurtz will perform this year.

Jordan Lawlar

I still don’t, and won’t ever understand the Perdomo signing. Yes, Suarez’ contract is up after this year, which means Lawlar will likely shift over to 3B and be there every day for the D-backs in 2026, but now you’re pushing the near-23-year-old Lawlar back another year. The team wants him to get “regular at-bats in Reno”, which at this point, is a disservice to him. Perdomo will regress to his .240 AVG bat, and Lawlar will make his statement in the bigs sometime early-summer. I increased his potential score as I think he’s close to a star-potential SS. Still holding out for my bold prediction I made last month as well, which is still possible with the pushed-back 2025 debut:

Michael Arroyo

Click any one of these posts or check out my bold take for Arroyo this year below. A jump to the top-10 overall is coming for Arroyo.

Marcelo Mayer

Yes, Kristian Campbell is the one that made the roster. But Mayer was the one who impressed the most out of the dynamic trio in Boston (Campbell, Anthony, Mayer). He’ll see his stint in AAA but find his way up when Trevor Story inevitably gets injured. I still think his ceiling is that of a middle-of-the-pack everyday pro shortstop, but he proved he’s nearly ready for that challenge in 2025.

MOVING DOWN

Chase DeLauter

Another injury. This time, the surgery will keep him out at least 4 weeks into the MLB season. Once healthy, he’ll need a combination rehab assignment/prove it period in AAA. From there, expect him up to the bigs early this summer. What would’ve been my pick for AL ROY, has now become a prayer that he doesn’t join the likes of Royce Lewis, Josh Jung and the rest of the all-MLB injured team, as a kstar potential player who consistently finds his way onto the IL. The potential is there, but the injuries make his likeliness to get to that all-star potential a bit riskier.

Alejandro Rosario

Alejandro had all the hype going into 2025. He had an elite 2024, tossing 88 innings while holding a beautiful 37% strikeout % and an even more appealing 3.7% walk percentage (that difference led the MiLB). What looked to be a jump up year to AA-AAA for the young arm, has now been set back by what is likely to be a season ending UCL injury. Push Rosario’s timetable back another year, with a MLB debut looking more like mid-2027.

Coby Mayo

He’s an every day MLB 3rd Baseman. Even if he’s not technically right now, he’s worthy of the shot. A rough spring doesn’t change that. I have tempered my expectations on Coby, although I think he’s a victim of his own organizational depth. The Orioles need pitching and I’m not really sure what they’re doing holding onto Mayo, especially if they feel confident in Westburg and Holliday in the pros. Send him to San Diego or Miami and let him go to work without the leash.

Christian Moore

Consistency, consistency, consistency. Those calling for his early call-up clearly haven’t seen the scouting report. Moore is streaky: from college, to his pro debut, to this spring. He needs at LEAST a spring and summer in the minor leagues to improve his consistency at the plate. The Angels are rebuilding, there’s no rush. A Neto-Moore middle-infield should excite Angels fans. Although the latter has a much lower floor in my opinion.

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1. Spring Training (#1)
2. Spring Training (#2)
3. End Of Spring Guide (#3)