Add These Prospects? Now We Have a Real Sample Size (Hit Sheet #5)
“Did that opening week hot streak fade or become real? These prospects should officially be on your watch list“
By Sal Corso: April 7th, 2025:
Did that opening week hot streak fade or become the new reality? We now have a true sample size for most of these kids (excluding DSL and Complex ball). With that, there are some prospects that should now officially be on your watch list.
As with all of our Hit Sheet’s, we’ll show you which prospects are rising and falling on our ranking sheet based on performance and tools. But first, a recap of our scoring and ranking system:
Our RANKING SHEET isn’t your typical ranking sheet. We don’t just rank a prospect with a number. We also give them an Upside Score and a Likeliness Score to hit that potential. As a refresher:
Upside Score: A unique value based which determines our realistic upside for the prospect. The score determines the prospects potential ceiling based on tools and performance:
85+ = Superstar Caliber
80-84 = All-Star Caliber
75-79 = MLB Everyday+
70-74 = MLB Everyday
<69 = Reach MLB
Likeliness: Chance to reach upside based-on tools & current performance.
HIGH = 70%+
MED = 40-70%
LOW = 40%-
Now, let’s take a look at week 1, starting from the top-down.
Player (Upside Score) [Likeliness]
A.J Ewing (73) [LOW] *NEW*
Ewing has always been a walk-machine. What’s more impressive is that his swing rate hasn’t increased year-over-year (40%) but his contact rate is up +15pp (85%). That means he’s having more effective swings and swinging more efficiently. Plus, he’s hit 4 triples and stolen 14 bases, so you know the speed is there. I’m buying on Ewing, and as I say that, he’s getting promoted to High-A Brooklyn.
Jordan Lawlar (84) [MED]
The general public does not give Lawlar’s power tool enough credit. And he’s proving them wrong – he’s now got 5 HR 26 RBI and a .644 SLG % in 26 games at AAA. He needs to be up with the Diamondbacks and he’s a sure-fire everyday infielder for them in 2026.
Pedro Pineda (67) [LOW] *NEW*
Pineda is off to a hot start, and the power is very impressive (4 HR 13 RBI in 16 games). But this is his 4th stint in A-ball, and at nearly 22-years-old, I’d like to see more consistency before going near his cards or fantasy value.
Moises Ballesteros (78) [HIGH]
A 2TB favorite. His plate discipline and contact were what got me 1.5 years ago. His power improvement is what makes him even more intriguing today. .414/.475/.586 with a 12% K-rate, 33% line-drive rate and has an even split across left-center-right? Oh, and his swing-rate is the lowest of his career AND so is his swing rate on balls outside the zone. He’s an MLB-hitter.
Ryan Waldschmidt (73) [MED]
Waldy is not slowing down. However, he’s a tad older than most top prospects in A+, so let’s see how he fares in AA. I’m not jumping the gun until then. He gets a ton of loft on the ball, but has a measly 15% line drive rate and the 28% hard-hit rate isn’t very impressive given the power numbers that he’s produced off it.
Slade Caldwell (75) [LOW] *NEW*
A short and stocky young outfielder with a big lefty hack. The question was never the contact or swing, but rather the barrel and exit velocity. Well, he’s proving the haters wrong. Half of his hits (18 total) are XBH, and the 26% hard-hit rate is no joke for a prospect of his size and stature. The problem now is the 30% K-rate (25 K’s in 89 PA is nothing to write-off). Let’s see if that’s just pro-debut jitters/adjustments, or if the contact will be an issue. I’m not too concerned given the Diamondbacks sent him straight up to A ball, but I’m not buying the Corbin Carroll comps yet (nobody should).
Hector Rodriguez (77) [LOW] *NEW*
Somewhat of a card-hobby legend, I never really paid much attention to Hector, outside of his card comps. Maybe I should have. A stocky (210 LB) outfielder who’s played all 3 positions. This kid has hit really well over the last few years in A/A+. A consistent .280+ AVG and sub-20% K-rate. The approach needed some work, but looks like the Red’s camp knows this. From A+ (2024) -> AA (2025), here’s some of his rates: BB +5.5pp, Swing -9pp, all while keeping contact rates consistent at 80%. More importantly, he’s doing this at the tougher level, before turning 22. Give me some Hector, I’m in.
Caleb Bonemer (75) [LOW]
Called him out in our top 2024 Bowman Draft values. The 2nd-round pick for the White Sox is off to a great start. Here’s what we said about him this winter:
- Spring Training (#1)
- Spring Training (#2)
- End Of Spring Guide (#3)
- MiLB Opening Week (#4)
- Prospects to Watch: Now That We Have a Real Sample Size (#5)
Check out all of our scores on our RANKING SHEET. Also subscribe to our newsletter below to receive up-to-date rankings and weekly highlight reports on all the top-prospects.
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