2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: October 30th, 2023

This new segment is called Pick 2. We take two prospects of the same position, similar age and minor league level. We compare their card values and potential scores, and we pick.

Let’s start. Shortstops. Both of these players fall within the top-2 on their teams’ top prospect lists’. Both are lefties, 20 years old, and each taken in the 1^st round of their respective drafts. If you are into prospect lists, you can probably guess these two names. If you are not, we got you covered.

Who would you pick?

I lean towards Prospect 1 for two reasons. First, he’s done damage at double-A. Can you guess the second? Yep, strikeout rate. Give me the lower K-rate nine-times out of ten, especially when every other statistical category is close. However, if I was a major-league GM, I’d be very happy with either player in my organization. Let’s dive-in to both prospects now.

Prospect 1: Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres

Merrill was taken with the 27^th pick in the 2021 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres. Off of a successful (shortened) debut season in 2021, Merrill took massive strides in ‘22. He slashed .339/.395/.906 across Rookie and A-ball. The Padres clearly felt Merrill was a key part of this teams’ future. I say this because the Padres cleared out the farm system after the 2022 season to trade for Juan Soto. They traded four of their top six prospects, excluding Luis Campusano and of course, Jackson Merrill. And he returned the favor, posting the stat-line shown above and moving up to 9^th on the MLB.com’s top 100 prospect list.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBKQ-E5Pn3I

His strike-out rate was 4^th lowest across top 150 prospects, he hits the ball to all areas of the field (38% pull rate), and he’s a solid runner (15 SB to go along with his 15 HR). Merrill turns 21 right after Opening Day. Not right away, but at some point in the year he’ll most likely receive the best gift he can imagine, getting the call up to the big leagues.

Merrill’s card market is probably one of the most confusing. First, he’s one of those prospects that has a 1^st Bowman, but he does not have a 1^st Bowman auto. Unique? Yes. But not the craziest part. Check out the pictures below. Does something look off to you?

The picture at the top is, in fact, left-handed hitting Jackson Merrill. The picture on the bottom, of the Bowman card that Topps mass-produced and included in the 2021 Bowman Draft set, is of right-handed hitting, former teammate of his, Isaac Frye. Wow. Imagine you excel at every level of baseball, you finally get the chance to see your first pro baseball card, and it’s not you. With the decision to not include a 1^st auto and their huge mistake on his base card, Topps essentially destroyed the market for Jackson Merrill. Because of this, I’m not adding his cards, but I do believe Merrill is ready to make a splash for a Padres team that may look to blow up its major league roster.

Prospect 2: Cole Young, Seattle Mariners

Young was taken by the Mariner’s with the 21^st overall pick, one year after Merrill was taken by the Padres. Young, similar to Merrill, impressed in his short, debut season, slashing .367/.423/.940. This included 14 RBI in 17 games, which led to a quick call up from rookie to A-ball before the season ended. His start to 2023 was unique. In 78 games at A-ball, his average dropped to .267, but his OBP was 100-points higher than his average, at .396. His power was down (only 5 home runs), but so was his strike-out rate (16%). This led to a call-up to high-A where he took an exponential leap forward. In 48 games he posted the stat line: .292/.404/.883 6 HR 23 RBI. He jumped atop the Mariners top prospect list, overstepping the Mariners 1^st round pick from the year prior, catcher Harry Ford.

Even though he is the same age as Merrill, along with his draft year, he’s likely a year behind Jackson in terms of his development as well. MLB.com has a predicted majors ETA of 2026. However, I see him starting off in Double-A this year, and making his debut sometime in 2025. Young seems to get better as he moves up each level in the system. Let’s see if he can keep that up with the hardest minor’s leap upcoming: High-A to Double-AA.

Young’s Bowman market is MUCH better than Merrill’s. First, the picture on the card is actually him (great start). Second, he has a 1^st Bowman autograph. I like his value too. Shortstop’s a prime position. The Mariner’s play in relatively big market. And he flat-out has potential. His PSA 10 blue refractors (# /150) are going for around $550-$600. Seems steep, but that’s also a jersey-color match, which in the hobby comes at a premium. His ungraded gold refractor went for $560 in October. That’s where I think the value lies.

Overall, I like Merrill’s potential a tad more than Young’s. So we’ll give him a slightly higher 2TB Score. But it’s close. However, given Merrill’s ridiculous and non-existent card market, I’d be happy to add a low-numbered Young this off-season.