2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: Dec 6, 2024

There are two positions that major league teams (and card collectors) drool over: Shortstop and Centerfield. Not just because the positions themselves are the most critical, but also because a prospect who played shortstop his whole career can play 2^nd base, 3^rd base, and most times, even a corner-outfield slot. Meanwhile, a centerfielder can be shifted to left or right field with ease. This is vital for major league teams, many of which have changing needs and holes to fill over the course of the few years before a player rises through the minors and is ready for the big time.

That brings me to my next Pick 2 segment. These two lefty-hitting, top-25 MLB.com prospects have already risen through the ranks, and both have gotten major league time in centerfield. One is a pure centerfielder, while the other has spent time across the three outfield positions. Both have the potential to be mainstays at the position for their respective teams for years to come. Let’s get to it.

These prospects fall two-spots apart on the current MLB.com ranks. Prospect 1 has been given 60/55 hit/power tools, while Prospect 2 was given 55/50. Prospect 1 is 6-foot-2, Prospect 2 is 5-foot-11. The stats back up the tool grades. Prospect 1 excelled in hard hit %, slugging and OPS. Prospect 2 had a hell of a year as well, and at 2-years younger of age. As we’ve mentioned time and time again, we value contact over power when it comes to grading potential in prospects. Players that make (good) contact in the minors usually have much more success against major-league pitching. Prospect 2 also had 74 steals in 214 career games (30 more steals in 40 less games than Prospect 1). With all of that said, who would you take?

I lean towards Prospect 2. Yes, Prospect 1’s walk rate, hard hit %, average and OBP are all more appealing. But Prospect 2 is 1) a pure CF, 2) faster, 3) still had a fantastic year in each statistical category, at a younger age. So we finally get to the question, who are they?

Prospect 1: Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles

Don’t let Cowser’s name get lost amongst the slew of young talent in this system. Yes, the Orioles have had two 1^st overall draft picks in Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday, but Cowser was taken top-5 overall as well (2021). Colton was the #1 hitting prospect in the draft, and he portrayed that talent instantly. He spent a measly seven games in Rookie ball before being called up to single-A. There he hit .347/.733/1.333 in 25 games. Yes, you read that right. A 1.333 OPS in his first two dozen games in professional baseball. He added 34 RBI in those 25 games as well. Cowser’s swing is exactly what you’d expect from a 6-foot-2 lefty who makes good contact. He swings through the ball with a slight release of one hand off the bat after contact. When he makes contact, he hits the ball hard, as shown below in his tie-breaking grand slam in the minor league championship last season.

However, he fits the negative narrative of a player of this build as well. He strikes out too much and he struggles with lefties. Cowser is a professional hitter. Is he a ‘great’ professional hitter? I think he could be. His arm strength is tremendous, but many see him winding up in a corner outfield spot. Overall, I see Colton being a solid, middle of the lineup hitter. A .250 25 HR 80 RBI type-hitter. An Ian Happ-type product at the plate, if we must comp (we must). He had been up and down from the major-league club a few times in 2023. He didn’t hit well, but the sample size and inconsistency of at-bats made it impossible for the young outfielder to get into any rhythm. I look for that to change in 2024.

Colton Cowser is a tough buy for me right now. In a LOADED Baltimore Oriole’s lineup, it’s going to be hard for him to separate himself. Card collectors want stars, and the Orioles have a few already. Adley, Gunnar and Jackson are the big add opportunities, at a premium. A PSA 10 base auto for Cowser just did $100 in auction. I would hold off at that price or really any.

Prospect 2: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

“PCA”, as many like to paraphrase, has had a ton of potential from the jump. As the #1 high school prospect in 2019, the Mets wound up drafting him 19^th overall in the 2020 draft. Unfortunately for Mets fans, he was traded only a year later, in what has the potential to be an elite-tier rip-off, if PCA becomes even slightly the player he’s supposed to be. The Mets received centerpiece Javy Baez (ha) in return. We all know what happened to Javy. If you don’t, he signed a massive deal with the Detroit Tigers and forgot how to hit.

But back to Crow-Armstrong. PCA skipped Rookie ball all-together, rightfully so. He hit .417 in a quick 6-game stint before the 2021 season ended. In 2022 he picked up right where he left-off the year prior, hitting .312 with 16 HR/61 RBI/32 SB in 101 games across A and A+. By 2023, he saw at-bats at AA, AAA and eventually, the pros. Same as Cowser, PCA didn’t hit well in his pro-debut, but who does in a quick 13 at-bats in 14 games. I see PCA being closer to the hitter he was in the minors, the one who averaged .301 27 HR 110 RBI 28 SBs. I’ll drop those numbers slightly, as that stat-line is MVP-like. But a Bryan Reynolds type bat with some more speed? I can see it. Oh, and he’s as pure of a centerfielder as they come.

I am most definitely keeping an eye on PCA’s card market. A sparkle autograph /71 (my favorite parallel, above) just did $300 in auction. Although is 1st auto is him in a Mets uniform, I still love it. I may add one this offseason if the prices stay here.