2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: March 4th, 2026:

Like many, I joined the prospecting hobby for fun. I knew it was a losing investment. So, I chase fun prospects, enjoy ripping boxes here and there, and like to find attachment to players that I hit cool cards of. For this write-up, we’re ignoring all of that…

If you join this hobby for investment purposes, or just want to find ways to make back what money you put into it; here’s my strategy for how to handle player’s card market throughout his career.

Remember, ripping boxes and joining breaks is a losing game and should not be a form of investment.

Now, a prospect’s card market generally lives within the time of his 1st bowman release –> his rookie year. Yes, there is an extension of that market. But for 99.99% of 1st bowman’s, the value lives and dies in that time frame. I’m going to go through each of those steps, and tell you whether you should BUY, HOLD or SELL at that time.

1. Product Release Date: SELL (Almost 99% of the time)

This is what I like to call the “Product Release Premium” or PRP. If you’re ripping or breaking, it’s your best chance to make a profit on the gamble of prospecting. If you’re looking to buy singles of your favorite prospects in the set, don’t. Here’s a great, recent example of why:

2025 Bowman Draft was released this past December. Here’s the price trajectory of one of the biggest prospects in the set, JoJo Parker:

1. $250 – Jan 4th
2. $125 – Feb 4th
3. $75 – Mar 4^th

Note, JoJo has not played a game since, ha. The hobby, like many other collectible investments, is primarily valued on two things (1) POTENTIAL and (2) FOMO (fear of missing out). A lot of people think the value is based-on long term performance and career success, that’s absolutely untrue, and we’ll get to more of that later.

But this is a tough one for people. You hit that big card and you think “wow, this could be worth $xx someday if he becomes Mike Trout”.

Unless it’s a DIE-HARD chase, or a prospect you believe has superstar upside, you sell on release. Take your profit, and you can always buy-back at a cheaper price later on. 99% of prospects never reach their initial PRP value in their entire career.

Instead, my favorite thing to do is buy prospects from older sets during this early release time. A personal example: when 2025 Draft came out, I grabbed some of my favorite 2024 Bowman Draft (Braylon Payne) and even the most recent 2025 Bowman Chrome (Kevin Alvarez) singles. Even though Alvarez is making a splash this spring, he’s still significantly less pricey than he was several months ago when that release came out.

2. Prospect Is Heating Up in Minors: BUY

Now this varies a bit more than the above, but we’re using the scenario that you truly believe in this prospect. Maybe even one of your favorite prospectors, 2 The Bigs, say he’s the real deal. Go buy them. You’re generally early, even if it’s a top name. Again, use the strategy above, wait for a new Bowman set to drop, and jump on this player’s 1^st bowman from that previous set. You generally want to find guys outside of the Top-25, but even within that top range, it’s fine to chase during this time.

3. Prospect Jumps Up Offseason Rankings: HOLD

Every baseball fan yearns for the spring. A few months before you have winter meetings, baseball build up, and most importantly, updated prospect rankings! All the football and basketball collectors come out of the woodworks to see who the big names to collect are. Your prospect had a great season last year; he jumped up the ranks. He’s going for a premium, but he’s still in the minors. Hold. A majority of the baseball public is still finding out who this kid is. And much of the big money surprisingly comes from the more general baseball fans.

4. Prospect Lights Up Spring Training: DEPENDS

Perfect timing, as we are here right now. Let’s separate this out into two scenarios.

1. The Prospect does not have a path to a short-term roster spot. Think Velazquez, Lombard and Hope this year. This is a solid time to SELL/HOLD. Again, you can always buy-back during the season when they are back down in the minors. Take a nice profit. Look at Lombard, his 1st bowman is up +50% since January because he’s had a good 15 at-bats. But, if you love the kid and don’t care too much about the quick profit, go ahead and HOLD.
2. The Prospect is fighting for a roster spot. In this case, HOLD. These are the AA-AAA guys that have a path to a major league roster spot on opening day. Think McGonigle, Waldschmidt, Emerson and Crawford. You don’t want to sell, even with the performance premium. Yes, they may be the talk of spring, but it’s worth holding for that shot at an opening day roster announcement.

5. Prospect Gets Called-Up: SELL

Here’s the big one. Probably the most important. I want to reiterate what I said when we started:

. The hobby, like many other collectible investments, is valued on two things (1) POTENTIAL and (2) FOMO.

Number 1 is so immensely important, and some people in this hobby just don’t understand it. The argument I would always see on twitter would drive me nuts. And I bet you all have seen it too…

“Why is this 19-year-old’s card more expensive than [enter any MLB star’s name]?”

Those people do not understand point 1 (and it’s alright if this applies to you). This market is all about potential. Everybody wants to own MLB’s next superstar before he’s MLB’s next superstar. Emphasis on BEFORE. Most of the profit window in prospectingcomes within the timeframes I listed above. That’s not a definitive statement, but in investments, you want to follow the majority case.

Look at the MLB, which players are the ones that go for big value? Ohtani, De La Cruz, Skenes, and a few others. The list is short. Now look at Skubal, he’s a two-time winning Cy Young and there are prospects in 2025 Bowman Draft who’s 1^st autograph goes for a similar value.

There are always outliers, so don’t use this article has definitive fact. Rather, try and use it to make judgements about who you collect, and the quantity of players you collect. Remember, 99% of minor leaguers never see a major league field. Less than 10% of those becomes all-stars. Near 1% of those become MLB stars. All together, the chances of your 1st bowman prospect falling into the group of select few that hold immense value is rare.