2 The Bigs

By Sal Corso: September 8th:

In February, I released my 5 Bounce Back Candidates for 2026. Feel free to click on the link, but I’ll be keeping most of my initial write-up below for you to see. With many preseason predictions, rankings, picks, etc, you’re bound to get a bunch wrong. But I was very proud of this list…and it paid off. These 5 prospects had tough 2025 seasons (for one reason or another), but I stuck with my gut, believing that the long term success would conquer. The reason I am writing this results article is not to bask in any of the hits. But more importantly, to show you that if you believe in a prospect, do not get down after a rough day, week, month, summer, or even season. Stick with your gut too, especially if the metrics tell you to do so. With that, let’s dive in. You’ll see my initial analysis (in italics) from February and then the update below. (I’m also leaving my intro from the initial write-up because I think it applies even more today)

Player development is not linear in any sport, especially baseball. The competition is drastically more challenging across the several minor league levels of ball. That’s all before you even see the major league level. On top of that, baseball is the most inconsistent sport. Take it from one of the most successful players in the history:

When you look at 18-22 year old prospects that are still not only developing, but also growing into their bodies, you have to remember all of that. So, I’m going to give you 5 prospects who had down years in 2025, that I believe will validate the point above and get back on track. These talented prospects are poised to show you that player development truly goes through ups and downs.

1. Welbyn Francisca, SS (CLE)

Initial Analysis: Like many, I loved Welbyn going into last season. Here’s what I had to say in my “2025 Top International Prospects List”:

In 291 AB, Francisca had an 82% contact rate, which was highest on this list. He added a slash of .326/.411. He was also consistent across DSL and A Ball in the last two years (140 wRC+). The power concerns are fair, but that can be developed more easily than any contact concerns. His hard-hit rate is low, and he hits A LOT of ground balls (55% last year). Getting lift and power on his swing will be a big focus in 2025. But I love the “he doesn’t have a loud tool” scouting. I’ll take a kid who can do it all and develop over the ones that have a big power tool and can’t put the rest together.

In 2025, he didn’t put it together and every high-level metric was pretty much down year-over-year. However, he upped his contact rate +5pp (percentage points) and swung and missed less (-2pp). The average dropped almost a hundred points, mostly on balls in play. He won’t even be 20 until the summer, and he’s already got 1.5 years of A-ball under his belt. He’s short, so the power upside is limited, but go check his social media, which is mostly videos of him heavy lifting. The Guardians development team likely has some muscle growth goals for him going into the new season. If he can get that hard-hit rate up even 5pp to 20%, he’ll see a significant jump across his entire slash line.

Update: 74 G (A+) [Promoted to AA]

.270/.368/.518 18 HR 50 RBI

I LOVE this one and I’m so glad I put him first. Welbyn is the perfect example for a few key themes here at 2TB.

(1) The underlying metrics tell more than the typical slash and HR/RBI totals.

(2) Young international prospects have SO much time to develop.

His ground-ball rate is down to 40%, he’s hitting more line drives and HR to coincide. Welbyn was a near top-100 prospect in 2024, and he’s pushing his way back onto that list. On top of that, he JUST turned 20-years-old in May. One of my favorite redemption prospects who still has a ton of time to develop and is back ahead of his timeline as a younger prospect in AA.

2. Jaison Chourio, OF (CLE)

Initial Analysis: “Sal, two Guardians in a row?” Yep. I always like to say, teams that scout and develop well, will continue to scout and develop well. The Guardians are one of those teams. Jaison Chourio was my big bet from last winter, and I lost. In 2024 he had a .316 BABIP, .414 OBP and a 1.3 BB-K ratio. He didn’t hit the ball in the air much, but he did hit it frequently (81% contact rate).

In 2025, he dealt with an injury that kept him out half the season, and even before that he wasn’t the same hitter. What didn’t change, however, was the ability to get on base. Even with a .235 average and increased K-rate, he still held an impressive .380 OBP. He does not swing and miss, at all. If anything, he needs to swing more, and work on getting some loft on his swing. He’ll be turning 21 this summer and now fully healthy. I’m betting on not only a return to form, but the power surge that I wanted to see last year.

Update: 109 G (A+/AA)

.271/.376/.410 9 HR 53 RBI 79 R 39 SB

There was one thing for certain, the .239 AVG from 2025 was not going to last. But what’s better is that the isolated power (ISO) tripled, the hard-hit rate jumped from 18% -> 26%, and his SLG is at a career high across any year in stateside ball. And like Welbyn, he’s young – only 21 with a good stretch in AA under his belt. I’m looking forward to seeing Jaison and Welbyn in the top of that lineup to close out the year. I want to continue to see the power jump as his body builds through the winter. I don’t think 20 HR upside is completely out of the question here long term, in which case be becomes a 20-50 type of player.

3. Thayron Liranzo, C/1B (DET)

Initial Analysis: The hardest jump in the minor leagues is from A-levels to Double-A. Thayron felt that. Here’s his A+ –> AA splits year over year:

2024 (A+): .244/.378/.408 24% K 18% BB 71% contact

2025 (AA): .206/.308/.351 32% K 12% BB 66% contact

Yet his HR/FB and line drive rates stayed the same, he became less pull heavy and had a 32% hard-hit rate, which was top 20 across all minor league baseball. He’s got to figure it out on the defensive side and make some adjustments to cut down on misses at the plate. I’m banking on that happening, given that he’s in another organization that does very well developing hitters.

Update: 87 G (A/AA)

.211/.337/.424 16 HR 57 RBI

I went against my gut here. I ignored the K-rate because of the other metrics. And while there has been some improvement (overall slash, BB-rate, power), the contact issues still remain. Liranzo is now 23 in his second full stint in double-A. While the power numbers look exciting, the swinging strike rate is still a problem. But there’s not a complete loss of hope here just yet. He’s not chasing much at all, he’s just not making contact consistently on balls in the zone. There’s still some time for him to work on that, but I’ve tampered my expectations.

4. Xavier Isaac, 1B (TAM)

Initial Analysis: I had Isaac in my Top Bowman Value Buys write-up a few weeks ago:

I’ve been a fan of Isaac for some time now. And I’ve been hard on him for the past 6 months. However, that was before he came out with what he went through during the season, which was a very critical injury and time away from the game. Xavier had brain surgery this year to deal with some internal issues he was having that included eyesight problems. He posted a month or so ago stating that he is fully healthy and back. First off, what a tremendous recovery and wishing him nothing but future success. Second, this kid may have the best raw power in the entire minors, and if he can put the bat to the ball more often this upcoming season, he could jump right back into top 50 discussions.

He strikes out a ton, even in years’ past. His profile generally isn’t my cup of tea. But he has shown stints in lower levels where he kept the K-rate around 20% and the OBP upwards of .400+. Not to mention, a slugging percentage in the mid-.500s. IF, and it’s a big if, the contact shoots up now that Xavier is fully healthy and seeing right, that raw power can be unleashed to new heights. And do I need to mention the organization that is working with him?

Update: 109 G (AA/AAA)

.259/.404/.520 27 HR 75 RBI 20 SB

This is my favorite one of the bunch. After I wrote the initial article, Isaac came out and said he had a brain issue that was impacting his eyesight. He had brain surgery and fixed that problem prior to the start of the season. Not only is that an unbelievable story and, most importantly, we are most happy with the fact that he’s healthy. But it also did fix his game. While the K-rate is still high (30%), every single metric is up (or better) year over year. Everything, that’s not hyperbole. He hit so well that he was promoted to AAA and is creeping up on a major league debut. As was the case in the beginning of the year, Isaac will always have swing-and-miss issues. But similar to a Bryce Eldridge, they could be outweighed by every other part of his game. When he makes contact, he’s on base. There’s not much weak contact here at all. Plus, he draws enough walks to be able to fare well against big league pitching. In all, I can’t wait to see how he continues to impress going into the fall.

5. Yoeilin Cespedes, 2B (BOS)

Initial Analysis: Yoeilin is a perfect example of why you can’t jump on early DSL (Dominican Summer League) success. Many of the big international signings will show incredible potential, and then fall flat when they face stateside pitching (A-ball and higher levels). But Cespedes’ A-level slash line drop doesn’t look as bad when you dig into it. As a 19-year-old, he had an 80% contact rate and a 23% hard-hit rate. And, he got better as the year progressed. Granted, he still hit for a .732 OPS in August, but that was up +100p from June and +200p from July. He had 11 XBH, 11 RBI and 5 SB in 25 games that month. He’ll spend most of his 20 year old season in A/A+ and I think we’ll him continue to acclimate well.

Update: 104 G (A+/AA)

.237/.294/.441 20 HR 66 RBI

Yoelin has shown life from time-to-time this year. The problem is that he just hasn’t advanced the approach enough. His walk rate is still low, his first pitch strike rate is way up, and the swinging strike rate is up overall. There is no regression here, just not much progression. Yoelin actually just turned 21 today, so he’s still ahead of his development given the fact he’ll have upwards of 30 games in AA under his belt. But it looks like he’ll spend most, if not all of 2027 at that level trying to get that walk rate up and get on base more consistently.

Overall, I could not be more excited about the progression of Francisca, Isaac and Chourio. I’ve been extremely high on all three, and will see each reclaim their spots on top-100 lists going into 2027. Stay with me and 2 The Bigs all offseason, to get you prepped for the prospects you need to watch going into next season!